Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.660928 24.845765 29.448528 34.858621 41.014509 47.772078 55.721162
2025-08-31 13.793969 19.053363 25.446380 33.666538 43.824831 55.833602 70.959589
2025-09-07 10.640419 16.402949 23.968251 34.359692 47.971147 64.892843 87.187115
2025-09-14 8.094494 13.834274 21.920827 33.695110 49.904800 70.917326 99.629492
2025-09-21 6.679360 12.497317 21.205579 34.513995 53.587077 79.141110 115.058819
2025-09-28 5.023486 10.405444 19.014879 32.868244 53.568108 82.248167 123.713593
2025-10-05 4.330703 9.732967 18.837648 34.075331 57.562861 90.914539 140.125877
2025-10-12 3.700326 9.025751 18.473570 34.893852 60.956746 98.818707 155.737966
2025-10-19 3.154488 8.351553 18.047850 35.520917 64.030264 106.331856 171.024877
2025-10-26 2.738753 7.842025 17.823651 36.417714 67.519905 114.546178 187.559727
2025-11-02 2.234209 7.015121 16.888783 35.981770 68.809696 119.477658 199.442580
2025-11-09 1.876690 6.430488 16.321128 36.104948 70.964507 125.750942 213.456321
2025-11-16 1.519975 5.778229 15.584020 35.964894 72.870882 132.041066 228.247800
2025-11-23 1.148551 4.957811 14.360914 34.790982 72.950241 135.509194 238.991739
2025-11-30 0.969041 4.623605 14.137934 35.505411 76.332781 144.355417 258.274043
2025-12-07 0.747476 4.058649 13.273575 34.823790 77.141310 149.013381 271.144248
2025-12-14 0.636141 3.824176 13.160326 35.663955 80.749946 158.399727 291.741085
2025-12-21 0.450941 3.201482 11.931359 33.975352 79.502739 159.565845 299.209167
2025-12-28 0.394754 3.088554 12.035503 35.213915 83.879309 170.424154 322.629592
2026-01-04 0.335211 2.925925 11.969534 36.053639 87.515030 180.120571 344.409840
2026-01-11 0.280061 2.749312 11.827817 36.696873 90.785678 189.280211 365.541800
2026-01-18 0.238894 2.620995 11.806323 37.616684 94.646983 199.593421 388.843280
2026-01-25 0.181368 2.341094 11.247397 37.169569 95.695176 204.933146 403.959554